Earlier this week, the
latest tranche of the security transfer process was announced. A third
swathe of Afghanistan will see Afghan national forces take the lead on
security, with the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force
(ISAF) scaled back into to a supporting role only.
Most taxpayers funding
the decade of war in Afghanistan won't have heard of many of the regions
affected, but this tranche is particularly significant because three
quarters of the country will now be under the control of Afghan security
forces.
On Sunday, NATO Secretary
General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said once the move is implemented,
"transition will have begun in every one of the 34 provinces of
Afghanistan, including every provincial capital."
But some of the areas involved in this latest handover are surprising.
The most striking is
Kandahar City, the former Taliban stronghold that has embodied the
brutal struggle of the Afghan conflict for ISAF forces, as progress has
been neither universal nor permanent.
There are other small
surprises: Half the districts in Nurestan -- a huge mountainous region
that straddles the border with Pakistan and has become as close to an
insurgent safe haven as Afghanistan has -- were handed over, as were a
third of the districts in Paktika, another border enclave for
insurgents.
Uruzgan, a volatile
region in the center of the country where Australian Prime Minister
Julia Gillard said progress has been so pronounced her soldiers can
start to come home early, was also handed over.
Afghan officials are in
favor of an early transition while there are enough ISAF troops around
to step in if the insurgency proves a match for the Afghan military.
It's probable they will, as the Taliban have given the NATO-led military
machine a run for its money.
Meanwhile, the fight for
localized power may overcome any sentiments of nationalism that would
enable Afghan soldiers to be comparatively welcome in villages and towns
across the country. The risk here is front-loaded, which is as much a
reflection of the pressing ISAF timetable as it is of progress in
security.
Within a few months --
when this third tranche has passed -- only a quarter of Afghans will
have security provided by ISAF. The timetable for withdrawal, although
pinned to the distant marker of the end of 2014, is speeding up as the
calls for an end to this costly and unpopular war get louder, from
Canberra to Washington.
The key fact for the
months ahead, and for the NATO summit in Chicago later this month, is
that the United States predicts its forces will be in a non-combat role
by mid-2013. That means they'll be off the battlefield about 18 months
earlier than the end of the NATO mission.
This is a big deal for
one simple reason: ISAF anticipates at the end of this year having about
68,000 American troops to play with, and thousands more allies. Next
year the numbers will come down further -- at a "steady pace" for the
Americans, as President Obama promised. But being in a non-combat role
is, you might argue, something you don't need 68,000-plus soldiers for.
There are units out there now who already believe much of their job
involves packing up and handing over, that their fight is pretty much
over already.
The real question still
to be answered though is how much does -- or can -- the Taliban want to
push ISAF and the Afghan forces this summer? Do they have the unified
command or muscle, or have talks about peace talks shattered their unity
of purpose? For now we just don't know.
However, the weekend
assassination of a senior Afghan official involved in setting up peace
talks with the Taliban, as well as the deaths of two ISAF troops in an
IED attack, suggests the security situation remains far from stable. Continue Reading
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